How we choose our highest-confidence picks
Each day we pick up to eight tips, and only from markets that suit low-risk betting:
- Home win for a clear favourite.
- Double chance, 1X or X2, which covers two of the three results. See all our double chance predictions.
- Over 1.5 goals, which wins if the match has two or more goals. See all our over 1.5 goals predictions.
Odds range: a tip only qualifies at odds of 1.20 to 1.55, and it needs real bookmaker odds. Draw no bet would suit this page too, but we don't hold odds for it at the moment, so it doesn't appear.
Form and home and away record: our prediction model takes the goals each team has scored and conceded in the competition this season, compares them with the league average and gives the home side a small edge. Both teams need at least three games behind them, so the model isn't judging on too little.
Confidence: the model turns those records into a chance for the tip to win. A pick needs at least 70%, and we list the ones with the highest chance, with at most two from one competition. On a day when fewer than five qualify, we show fewer rather than lower the bar.
Team news: the model doesn't read it. Before you bet, check the line-ups for injuries, suspensions and rested players.
Why even a strong favourite can lose
Odds of 1.25 mean the bookmaker expects the tip to fail about one time in five. At 1.50, it is closer to one time in three.
A red card, an early goal against the run of play, a penalty or a rotated side can turn any match. Our model also works from limited games, and it doesn't see team news. That is why a high confidence level is still not a promise.
Our recent record
These are the results of the picks chosen for this page on each of the last three days, won or lost.
Our recent winnings page lists winning tips across the site. It shows wins only, so use the record above when you want to see the losses too.
Singles or a small 2–3 leg slip: how to use these picks
Singles are the lowest-risk way to use these picks, because one loss doesn't cost you the rest.
If you combine them, keep it to two or three legs. Two picks at 1.30 make odds of about 1.69, but both have to win. If each has a 77% chance, the slip wins only about 59% of the time. With three legs, that drops to about 46%.
For a ready-made slip, see our free 2 odds. For one pick a day, see our banker of the day.
Frequently asked questions
Are 100 sure football predictions for tomorrow really certain to win?
No. Every football tip can lose, whatever a site calls it. These are the picks our model rates most likely tomorrow, at short odds.
What odds should a low-risk football tip have?
We use 1.20 to 1.55. Shorter odds mean the bookmaker rates the result more likely, but even at 1.20 it expects about one tip in six to lose.
What does the confidence level mean?
It is our model's estimated chance that the tip wins, based on each team's goals this season. It doesn't include team news, so treat it as a guide, not a promise.
Is double chance safer than a straight win?
Double chance covers two of the three results, so it wins more often than a straight win. The trade-off is lower odds.
Should I put all of tomorrow's picks in one accumulator?
We wouldn't. Every extra leg is another chance to lose, so eight short-priced picks together can fail more often than they win. Singles or a two or three leg slip keep the risk lower.
18+ only. Betting carries risk, so only stake what you can afford to lose. Read our responsible gambling guide.