Paraguay vs Australia Prediction: World Cup 2026 Group D

Paraguay vs Australia — Match Preview

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D · Round 3
📍 Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
🗓️ Thursday, 25 June · 10:00 PM ET (Friday, 26 June · 12:00 PM AEST)

Paraguay (4th in Group D, 0 pts) vs Australia (2nd/3rd in Group D, 3 pts) — knockout qualification on the line for the Socceroos.

Intro

With co-hosts USA already through as group winners, Group D’s final round comes down to who joins them in the Round of 32. Australia hold the edge — a win or even a draw should be enough to confirm their spot — while Paraguay, already pointless after two matches, need a win and a slice of luck elsewhere just to sneak through as one of the best third-placed teams. It’s a contrast in stakes that should still produce a tense, high-intensity finale in the Bay Area.

What’s at Stake

Australia’s Target
Sitting on three points, the Socceroos need only a draw to all but guarantee progress to the knockout rounds, with a win locking it up outright regardless of other results.

Paraguay’s Target
Bottom of the group with zero points from two defeats, Paraguay’s only realistic path is a win combined with favourable results across the other groups to sneak in among the third-placed qualifiers.

Group Picture
The USA have already wrapped up top spot in the group, leaving this fixture to settle who finishes second.

The Tactical Battlefield

🇵🇾 Paraguay — Formation: 4-4-2

• Style: Compact and disciplined, built around quick transitions
• Main Threat: Pace on the counter, with Galarza’s tournament-fastest goal against Turkiye showing their bite in the final third
• Vulnerability: A defence that has already conceded heavily against the USA and struggled to create consistently
• Key Duel: Paraguay’s front line vs Australia’s experienced backline — they need an early goal to change the complexion of the game

🇦🇺 Australia — Formation: 4-3-3

• Style: Direct, well-organised, capable of springing upsets — as shown against Turkiye
• Main Threat: Quick wide players cutting inside to shoot, plus a settled defensive structure
• Vulnerability: Were shut out by the USA in their second match and may sit deeper knowing a draw suffices
• Key Duel: Australia’s midfield control vs Paraguay’s counter-attacking transitions

Players to Watch

🇦🇺 Nestory Irankunda — Scored the opener in Australia’s opening win over Turkiye
His pace and ability to cut in from the left were central to the Socceroos’ surprise victory in the tournament opener.

🇦🇺 Connor Metcalfe — Doubled Australia’s lead vs Turkiye with a strike from outside the box
A reliable presence in midfield who has shown he can also contribute going forward.

🇦🇺 Mathew Ryan — Veteran goalkeeper, over 100 caps
A hugely experienced figure between the posts, even after being left out of the side’s opening game in favour of a younger option.

🇵🇾 Matías Galarza — Scored the fastest goal of the tournament so far, inside 64 seconds, vs Turkiye
Paraguay’s most dangerous attacking outlet and their best hope of an early breakthrough.

🇵🇾 Damián Bobadilla / Mauricio — Involved in Paraguay’s opening defeat to the USA
Paraguay’s attacking unit will need to find more consistency after a difficult opening two matches.

Recent Form (Group Stage)

🇵🇾 Paraguay

🇦🇺 Australia

Our Call

Paraguay 1 – 1 Australia
Odds (moneyline approx.): Paraguay +195 to +225 · Draw +120 to +225 · Australia favoured around -160 to -165

Australia know a draw is enough, which could lead to a more conservative approach, while Paraguay’s desperation for a win could open up the game. A tight, cagey contest with chances at both ends looks the most likely outcome, with the Socceroos doing just enough to avoid defeat.

Betting Tips

1. Draw — around +120 to +225
With Australia content with a point and Paraguay needing a win but lacking the firepower shown so far, a stalemate is a live possibility and offers solid value.

2. Under 2.5 Goals
Both sides have shown defensive solidity at times this tournament, and with Australia potentially playing for the point, a low-scoring affair looks the more probable script.

3. Australia Double Chance (Draw or Win)
Given the safety net a draw provides the Socceroos, covering both non-loss outcomes is a sensible way to back their superior group position without needing a win specifically.

4. Matías Galarza to Score Anytime
Paraguay’s most incisive attacker so far, Galarza’s pace and movement give him a good chance of finding the net against a Socceroos side that may sit back.

5. Both Teams to Score
Paraguay’s need for goals combined with Australia’s attacking momentum from their opening win makes goals at both ends a reasonable angle.

Build a Bet Suggestion: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals & Galarza to Score Anytime — a combo that leans into the cagey, low-event nature expected from a game where the stakes are asymmetric.

Odds are illustrative and for entertainment purposes. Always check the latest prices with your bookmaker before placing a bet, and gamble responsibly.

Stats Comparison

Group D Standings (Before Matchday 3)

Predicted Line-ups

Based on squads named and recent selections. Subject to late changes.

🇵🇾 Paraguay — Coach: TBD
GK: TBD
Defence and midfield built around recent starters from the USA and Türkiye matches
ST: M. Galarza · ST: D. Bobadilla

🇦🇺 Australia — Coach: Tony Popovic
GK: M. Ryan
Defence anchored by recent starters from the Türkiye win
MF: C. Metcalfe
FW: N. Irankunda

Head to Head History

This will be the sixth meeting between the two nations, with their most recent encounters coming in friendlies — Australia have won at least one of their last two meetings, while another finished level. There is no prior competitive World Cup meeting between these two sides, making Friday’s clash a first at this level.