The assumption that bookmakers get pricing right every time because they’re so deep in the data that they can’t be swayed by unfounded biases or market pressure is a common one. However, if the people setting the odds were always on point, there’d be no reason for bettors to try and beat them. And the most common slip-up you’ll see them make is when a strong favourite in a given match gets priced on how they’ve historically performed, rather than what their current run of form suggests they’re capable of right now.
Bettors can swoop in and make the most of this type of inefficient market pricing, but only if they’re confident that the experts have missed something or been swayed by emotion over logic.
What Causes This Disconnect
A few things fuel inefficient market pricing, the first of which is not the fault of bookmakers themselves, but rather down to the way casual bettors flood the market with wagers backing big-name teams whenever an important game is scheduled. If a side like Real Madrid or Manchester City is playing, it’s only sensible for gambling companies to offer shorter odds, because they simply don’t want to expose themselves to a major financial hit if the game goes to the favourites.
Take a look at these soccer odds and you’ll see this kind of pricing around every high profile match, and it’s the sheer volume of bets backing the favourites driving the market. That’s why many serious bettors choose to look for untapped value in less high profile showdowns, where the market is less influenced by casual bettors.
Another cause of a favourite being priced on reputation is the simple fact that odds models and betting markets aren’t as agile as they seem, and tend to be biased more towards historical results and performances, without always taking the current state of play into account. So if a team has undergone a squad shakeup and a once key player has just retired, they might still be priced in a way that’s anchored to how they faired when they were at their peak.
What Bettors Can Do About It
Knowing that there’s often a market bias towards favourites in specific games gives sports betting fans a means of being much more strategic with their wagers going into high profile matches.
One opportunity worth considering is the potential of a draw, as this often gets underpriced by the market when there’s a heavy favourite involved, even if said favourite has not been on an especially stellar run of form in the last few games.
The other obvious step is to bet against the market, and predict that the favourite will suffer defeat despite the fact that public money has massively moved the odds in the days leading up to the game.
Most importantly, keep a close eye on injury lists and team news, and potentially hold off on placing a bet until the morning of the game itself, as by this point there may be some information at your disposal that could help you beat the market to the punch.
