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Match prediction

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

KENYA · FKF PREMIER LEAGUE
Nairobi United logo Nairobi United 15th in table · Home DDLDD
Mara Sugar logo Mara Sugar 6th in table · Away WLDDW
12:00 PM Sat, 14 Nov 2026
Our prediction Under 2.5 goals
Odds 1.44
54% Confidence Medium
Home40.8%
Draw31.2%
Away28%

Form guide

Results from each team's last 10 matches

Nairobi United10 played
1Wins
2Losses
7Draws
LDDWDDDLDD
Mara Sugar10 played
3Wins
3Losses
4Draws
WLDLDWDDLW

Betting markets & predictions

Model probabilities across popular markets

Expected goals (xG) 2.5
LineOverUnder
1.571.5%28.5%
2.545.9%54.1%
3.524.4%75.6%

Last matches

Most recent results, all competitions

Nairobi United
08/11/2026
D GOR Mahia 1 – 1 Nairobi United
01/11/2026
D Nairobi United 1 – 1 Bandari
28/10/2026
L Murang'a SEAL 3 – 2 Nairobi United
25/10/2026
D Nairobi United 1 – 1 APS Bomet
18/10/2026
D Shabana 0 – 0 Nairobi United
11/10/2026
D Nairobi United 2 – 2 KCB
31/05/2026
W GOR Mahia 0 – 1 Nairobi United
24/05/2026
D Nairobi United 0 – 0 Kenya Police
16/05/2026
D Nairobi United 2 – 2 Posta Rangers FC
10/05/2026
L Kariobangi Sharks 2 – 0 Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
07/11/2026
W Mara Sugar 2 – 1 Migori Youth
02/11/2026
L Tusker 3 – 1 Mara Sugar
28/10/2026
D Mara Sugar 0 – 0 AFC Leopards
24/10/2026
D Ulinzi Stars 0 – 0 Mara Sugar
19/10/2026
W Mara Sugar 2 – 1 Mombasa Elite
11/10/2026
D 3K 2 – 2 Mara Sugar
31/05/2026
L Murang'a SEAL 2 – 1 Mara Sugar
27/05/2026
D Mara Sugar 0 – 0 GOR Mahia
16/05/2026
L Mara Sugar 0 – 1 Mathare United
13/05/2026
W Mara Sugar 1 – 0 Shabana

League table

FKF Premier League

See full table
#TeamGPWDLGGDPForm
1GOR Mahia64119:5+413WWWLD
2KCB64119:5+413WLWWW
3AFC Leopards62404:1+310WDDWD
4Kenya Police62316:5+19LDWWD
5Shabana62315:4+19DDDLW
6Mara Sugar62317:709WDDLW
73K62317:8-19DWLWD
8Murang'a SEAL622213:11+28WLWDD
9Bandari61413:307DLDDW
10Posta Rangers FC62135:9-47LWDLW
11Tusker42026:4+26WLWL
12Migori Youth51315:4+16DDDWL
13APS Bomet61324:3+16LDWDL
14Ulinzi Stars61325:7-26DDLWD
15Nairobi United60517:8-15DDLDD
16Mathare United61234:6-25LDWLL
17Homeboyz51224:6-25WDLLD
18Mombasa Elite60154:11-71LDLLL

Ranked on each side's last 5 league games (3 points a win, 1 a draw).

#TeamWDLPLast 5
1KCB40112WLWWW
2GOR Mahia31110WWWLD
3AFC Leopards2309WDDWD
4Kenya Police2218LDWWD
5Mara Sugar2218WDDLW
63K2218DWLWD
7Murang'a SEAL2218WLWDD
8Posta Rangers FC2127LWDLW
9Tusker2026WLWL
10Shabana1316DDDLW
11Bandari1316DLDDW
12Migori Youth1316DDDWL
13Ulinzi Stars1316DDLWD
14APS Bomet1225LDWDL
15Homeboyz1225WDLLD
16Mathare United1134LDWLL
17Nairobi United0414DDLDD
18Mombasa Elite0141LDLLL

6 recent meetings between Nairobi United and Mara Sugar

01/04/2026
DNairobi United1 : 1Mara Sugar
01/10/2025
WMara Sugar0 : 1Nairobi United
01/06/2025
DNairobi United1 : 1Mara Sugar
01/06/2025
DNairobi United1 : 1Mara Sugar
02/06/2024
LMara Sugar1 : 0Nairobi United
16/12/2023
LNairobi United0 : 2Mara Sugar

Dots show the result for Nairobi United.

Goals by time period

When each side scores, minute by minute

Nairobi United
0
1
2
1
0
2
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+
Mara Sugar
1
1
3
0
1
1
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Average event minute

Nairobi United
46'First goal scored
—First card
Mara Sugar
37'First goal scored
—First card

Season statistics

FKF Premier League season to date · 6 played · better value highlighted

Nairobi United · form
LDDWDDDLDD
Mara Sugar · form
WLDLDWDDLW
Nairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Points59
Wins02
Draws53
Losses11
Goals for77
Goals against87

Upcoming fixtures difficulty

Easy (1–2)Medium (3)Hard (4–5)
Nairobi United
H 14 Nov Mara Sugar
H 20 Nov Tusker
A 25 Nov 3K
A 29 Nov Posta Rangers FC
H 5 Dec Ulinzi Stars
H 11 Dec Migori Youth
A 12 Dec Mathare United
A 16 Dec Mombasa Elite
Mara Sugar
A 14 Nov Nairobi United
A 22 Nov Shabana
H 26 Nov Kenya Police
H 30 Nov Homeboyz
A 5 Dec KCB
A 11 Dec Posta Rangers FC
H 12 Dec GOR Mahia
H 16 Dec Mathare United

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar prediction & tips

Nairobi United will host Mara Sugar in their FKF Premier League encounter on October 16, 2026.

Nairobi United head into this fixture having recorded 3 draws in their last 6 matches and recorded 3 draws in their previous 5 home matches across all competitions.

Mara Sugar enter this contest after losing 3 of their last 6 matches, and have also been held to 2 draws in their last 6 away games across all leagues.

Of their last 5 meetings, Nairobi United have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 against Mara Sugar.

Prediction: Nairobi United to win with probability 41%.

Published by Football Analyst & Predictor · TodaysPredict

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar FAQs

What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Our tip is Under 2.5 goals, with a 54.1% model probability at odds of 1.44. It is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee.

When does Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar kick off?

Saturday, 14 November 2026 at 12:00 WAT (Nigeria time), in the FKF Premier League.

Who is more likely to win?

Our model gives Nairobi United 40.8%, the draw 31.2% and Mara Sugar 28%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams to score is rated at 50.9% for this match.

How many goals are expected?

Expected goals for the match come out at about 2.5, with over 2.5 goals at 45.9%.

What happened when they last met?

Their latest meeting ended Nairobi United 1 : 1 Mara Sugar (01/04/2026).

Match preview

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar prediction & match preview

League
Kenya · FKF Premier League
Date
Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 12:00 PM
Venue
To be confirmed