FiveThirtyEight no longer publishes its club soccer predictions. TodaysPredict isn't connected to FiveThirtyEight and doesn't use its model; the chances above are from our own.
This round's English Premier League fixtures and our tips
Each Premier League game above shows three numbers: our chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. Next to them is our tip, which may be the result, a goals line or both teams to score.
Form guide and table snapshot
The chances come from expected goals for each side, based on Premier League goals scored and conceded this season compared with the league average, plus a home edge. Early in the season, with few games played, they move more from week to week. Tables are on our league pages.
Key team news
- Line-ups come out an hour before kick-off.
- Rotation is common after European midweek games.
- New managers can change a team's numbers quickly.
None of these are in the model. More tips on all football predictions and over 2.5 goals predictions.
Recent record
We don't have any finished tips from this page in the last three days to show.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I find 538 epl predictions now?
FiveThirtyEight stopped publishing them. This page gives our own win, draw and loss chances instead.
Is this FiveThirtyEight's model?
No. It's TodaysPredict's own goals-based model.
Do the three chances add up to 100%?
Yes, give or take rounding.
When are the weekend's games posted?
As soon as fixtures have odds, usually by Friday.
Is it free?
Yes.
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